Our Macro thoughts…Inexplicable Clustering Of Risks…Greatest Threat Ahead…

…Risks and returns in the financial markets…have a tendency to cluster…At times…we experience…in our markets..great runs ..then…great falls….up waves and down cycles that appear to follow and feed on each other..even though mathematically most of our statistical modeling accounts for returns as independent values…Clustering of events…can also be seen holding true for our lives…both professional and personal..the ups and downs we experience individually and collectively…as families and as we relate to each other in our neighborhoods and in the global village…the action and reaction pairs are difficult to isolate..each components of our manifestation of our action as human beings…can be a blend of deterministic and non-deterministic interactions..in the former inputs are applied..and in the deterministic model the output produced will always be the same given the starting condition and initial state…however we have true limitations as even the starting conditions in the case of human interactions and the market can be hardly defined in a measurable fashion..and even if they were for a nanosecond…they will change..for the river is never the same river you swam in and you are never the same person swimming in it…the state of flux is the only constant in nature.. and much more so in human interactions…which in turn define value in the market place..and in each facet of life….trying to decipher the percentage of each ..deterministic and non-deterministic action and their interaction producing a new action..in the age old…action..reaction struggle have results attempted to be measured through modeling that incorporates chaos methodologies..interaction in the entire ecosystem are at times orderly, others chaotic and and sometimes in an inexplicably way they feed on each other to produce something amazingly different…it might have been the Renaissance in Europe..14th to 17th century Europe..this Era of amazing discoveries but foremost Humanism and Art..Erasmus…Leonardo Davinci…Michelangelo…or the 18th century Classical Master Composers…bursting all into the scene all nearly at once……Haydn..Mozart..Beethoven..Schubert…what contiritbutes to such clusters..are much unintended consequences at play…is there a more deterministic nature that we fail to assign…Our models for human behavior in the market and life are most complex..limited and least understood as the unknown unknowns are greater at times than the known’s we have isolated…in the end…however cognizant of our limitations we attempt to rationalize…even thought that it could have been..a series of statistical probable impossibilities that came together to produce an outcome that we can not be rationalized and yet we do..we rationalize it …because we carry the tendency as humans to want things to be normal…rational..explainable…understood…this part of our nature…this is progress and struggle..for there is a metaphysical dimension that can not be measured..making any model inheritably deficient… in turn any attempt for rationalization..and modest advances…leads us to think we can affect developments without taking into account that the system is more overly complex and unmanageable…the issue of volatility clustering is very complex…as it takes modeling that holds too many unknowns…but since the unknowingly split of the atom by Enrico Fermi and the first nuclear chain reaction at the University of Chicago in 1942….and the atomic bomb creation in 1945..one thing is certain…certain unknowns have now a certain value…and it can with certainty be measured as of its outcome as ultimate prize…being the destruction of the planet and the human race as we know it…all coming down to one single variable…for such a complex equation to have a deterministic valuation dependent on a single variable..is an end game proposition…an established nearly certain outcome….that our rationalization patterns have created in last half century…so much should be done..on an international level…to lessen the greatest risk at present…An Inexplicable Potential Clustering of Risks…that can conspire to leave the equation with a single deterministic variable.. the possibility of global risk clustering makes each crisis of such apocalyptic magnitude our crises …and they never begin as apocalyptic…they can take their genesis as technological solutions in our quest for human progress..civilization advances…progress to a deterministic outcome…Japan was the first to experience the horrors of technological breakthrough..in Hiroshima and Nagasaki…they are living those miserable times again…and yet they stand the winds of death… bravely…the Japanese Nation displays courage and pride against all adversity…for all world to see…For we are all Japan…for we know they will come back stronger..we have to change out thinking ..our modeling..we are too dependent on making decisions on present cost benefit analysis and not on futures valuations in regards to quality of life…making decisions that bear costs near term but benefit our children and the planet long term should be our modus operandi…we need all around the world to come together…to hold back as much as humanly possible…the Clustering of Events…introduce in our equation Love and Compassion..for each other…for we are likely to have collectively now passed ..in our thinking at Global Titan and regrettably through the period that risks will continue to cluster on the downside…..gTzanetatosgGLOBAL TITAN

URL: http://www.TzanetatosCapital

Blog: http://www.TzanetatosCapital.wordpress.com

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TZANETATOS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC
MEMBER NATIONAL FUTURES ASSOCIATION – NFA ID # 0303410
340 W. Superior,
Unit 1211
Chicago, IL 60610
TEL:1-312-399-5672
Email: GlobalTitan@Tzanetatoscapital.com

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURES RESULTS

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…Dante’s Inferno…

Japan. March 2011. Dante’s Inferno… Our heart goes out to the Japanese people…So unfair what they have to endure…So sad… So sad for all of humanity…for we are all Japan…Dante’s inferno describes Dante’s visit to the lower realms of the next world…he passes through the giant gates…with their prophetic inscriptions “Abandon all Hope Ye Who Enter Here…” . People of the Rising Sun….Look at the Sun as your protector…not the darkness of the now…You throughout history have managed to thrive despite all adversity…You are destined to overcome…We are with you…Tzanetatos Capital/ Global Titan USA

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURES RESULTS

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Our thoughts are with the people of Japan….

Our thoughts are with the people of Japan….a tragic natural disaster to forever change peoples lives…our lives… on this day March 11th, 2011… People in distress and now nuclear risk exposure on them today…tomorrow on any part of the planet…it make us so sad…Human tragedy and the man made dimension to an already epic disaster…Pushing the envelope of the circle of nature so much beyond. …These I wrote to a friend…Why do we bring ourselves to the brink as humans, every time we progress so much technologically? Why?…

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…the seasons…our Kontratieff work…at Global Titan…


…We feel that Spring is coming on the land but we think Kontratieff “winter” is taking hold… for sometime now…TZANETATOS CAPITAL…

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OPALESQUE

OPALESQUE FUTURES HEDGE FUND ARTICLE
INTERVIEWS
TZANETATOS CAPITAL/ GLOBAL TITAN

………GLOBAL MACRO PERSPECTIVE OPALESQUE ARTICLE…..

George Tzanetatos talks to OPALESQUE about macro trends, global risks and how he prepares for them…Greek crisis, what’s happening in China and his perspective on Global Macro…

Past Performance is not indicative of futures results.

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Our Macroeconomic thoughts…..Something has to give….


Tzanetatos Capital Management LLC

The US Equity market in less than two years as measured by the S&P500 has doubled from its post crisis March 2009 low. Volatility has sunk. US Unemployment remains high.The Fed is fueling a speculative boom with the riches accumulating to the few. US Labor struggling to get back to a decent or any work and the geopolitics paint a complete opposite picture to the market euphoria. All the while clouds in the global geopolitical sphere continue to gather pace. While in the west we measure progress many times by the rise or fall of the markets alone on a daily basis –For the people of Egypt the long struggle for jobs, social justice has only began. Feb 13th the military council abolished the constitution…timetable to nowhere is all we can see…as the military positions to further consolidates its stranglehold on the people. Unrest potential building in the Arab world. From the lands north of Sahara- Northern Africa. From the Nile to the Euphrates. From the Mediterranean to Mesopotamia. The two Is -Israel-Iran-eying each other and global players are taking positions. China has a new world status and it could test its newly found powers all the while weaknesses are building into its own economic system that risk world destabilization. Change in the status quo in the middle east and elsewhere where pressures have been building for some time now can have seismic implications for growth of the world economy. Rather growth stalling at best with uncertainty keeping long term investment plans at bay and hungry jobless populations or democratically starved plutocratic nations citizens pressuring for reforms. Global aggregate demand on the government side is pressured to collapse as spending at current intervals is unsustainable. The pace of implementation of structural reforms is slow and major structural reforms measures are still to be taken. Will the Fed stimulus policies continue to keep the economy from faltering? We take the view that the higher you are the greater the fall and the highs we are now are not compatible with the struggle to put bread on the table for most families. Even in the most affluent of Nations. Ours. The Baltic index has closed at near quarter century lows. Ship oversupply?Yes. Australia flood impact?Yes. Trade used to be the life blood of world economy. Now it is finance. Speculative flows of money looking for a quick domicile for short term gain. Capital has always ruled the world but money movements of such intensity is a relatively new phenomenon that our econometric models do not have much historic data to go by. All is so synchronized now around the world. The supply of funding for excess speculative building abundant from the central authorities. Yet Trade the heart pulse of human global endevours and interactions since time in antiquity- trade- global trade- is telling us otherwise. Something is happening. Something big. The amount of trade is clearly going down as things look up in government, central banks and brokerage house reports. The Greek ships have been taking much to China but lately they come back many times empty. Yet the forward looking equity markets of our Western World…measures of progress in the eyes of many..vain quests of financial engineering yet once more..have been marching higher. Fundamental and technical traders follow the same momentum of a rising tide on stimulative action not structural reform. This is not healthy.The system has yet to cleanse itself. Something has to give…..

TZANETATOS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC
CHICAGO
Past performance is not indicative of futures results.

http://www.TzanetatosCapital.com
follow us on twitter @GlobalTitan

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURES RESULTS

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Tzanetatos Capital /Global Titan Our Macroeconomic thoughts…

On Twitter: @GlobalTitan

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURES RESULTS

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